Ranking the Safest Areas in Tokyo from Natural Disaster Risk: A Complete Guide for 2025

Key Takeaways

Which Tokyo areas are safest from natural disasters:

• Lowest risk zones: Western and central upland wards (Bunkyo, Shibuya, Chiyoda, Minato, Meguro, Nerima, Suginami) on the Musashino plateau at 20-40m elevation
• Highest risk zones: Eastern lowland wards (Edogawa, Katsushika, Arakawa, Adachi, Sumida, Koto) in the "Zero-Meter Zone" at or below sea level

What defines safety:

• Elevation above 20m significantly reduces flood and tsunami risk
• Firm volcanic loam soil (plateau areas) resists earthquake shaking and liquefaction
• Modern buildings (post-1981) with wide streets reduce collapse and fire risk
• Distance from major rivers (Arakawa, Edogawa, Sumida) eliminates severe flood exposure

Critical trade-offs:

• Safest wards typically have higher housing costs and are more expensive
• No area in Tokyo is completely risk-free—all will experience major earthquakes
• Even "safe" wards have risky micro-locations (valleys, riversides)
• Even "risky" wards have safer pockets (elevated areas, modern high-rises)

How to evaluate any property:

• Check official hazard maps (ハザードマップ) for flood depth, liquefaction zones, and fire risk
• Verify elevation (aim for 10m+ minimum, 20m+ ideal)
• Confirm building age (1981+ meets modern earthquake codes)
• Assess street width (6m+ allows evacuation and firefighting)
• Review past flood records for the specific address

Practical preparation:

• Choose modern reinforced concrete buildings over old wooden structures
• Live on upper floors (3rd+) in flood-prone areas
• Know your evacuation routes and nearest designated shelter
• Maintain 3+ days of emergency supplies regardless of location
• Purchase earthquake and flood insurance

Tokyo is often praised as a safe city for crime and infrastructure, yet it faces significant natural disaster risks. Where you live in Tokyo can greatly affect your exposure to earthquakes, floods, and other hazards. Some wards sit on high, solid ground with little flood history, while others are low-lying "zero-meter" areas protected only by aging levees. In this article, we'll use the latest data to rank which Tokyo wards and neighborhoods are relatively safest from natural disasters, and explain how to evaluate a specific location's risk.

Why Disaster Risk Matters in Tokyo

Tokyo is a paradox: it's ranked among the world's safest cities, yet also among the most disaster-prone. The city's low crime and strong infrastructure are offset by very high exposure to natural hazards—especially earthquakes and floods. Tokyo lies near major seismic faults and on the Pacific "Ring of Fire," so the earthquake risk is ever-present. Experts estimate a 70% chance of a magnitude-7 class quake hitting the Tokyo region within 30 years. A direct hit could cause widespread building collapse, liquefaction, fires, and infrastructure paralysis.

Flooding is another major threat. Tokyo's eastern wards are crisscrossed by large rivers (Arakawa, Sumida, Edogawa) and lined by low reclaimed lands. Heavy rains or a typhoon storm surge could overwhelm levees and drainage. Government hazard maps show that if the Arakawa and Edogawa Rivers were to breach in a worst-case rainfall, vast portions of the "Koto 5 wards" on the east side would be under deep water. In the absolute worst scenario, flooding could persist for over two weeks across a wide area, affecting up to 2.58 million residents.

Tokyo's geography plays a big role. The city can be roughly divided into the high Musashino plateau and uplands in the west/center, versus the low Tokyo delta plain in the east. The plateau (20–40 m elevation, underlain by firm loam soil) generally shakes less and never floods, whereas the eastern lowlands (0–5 m elevation, soft soil) face amplified quake shaking, soil liquefaction, and river or coastal flooding. This stark contrast means disaster risk varies significantly by ward and even neighborhood.

Understanding the Safety Criteria

What makes one Tokyo neighborhood safer from natural disasters than another? We considered several key criteria:

Earthquake Structural Risk: How likely are buildings to collapse or be severely damaged in a quake? Tokyo's Regional Earthquake Risk Assessment evaluates every district on building collapse risk and fire risk, combining them with a "disaster time activity difficulty" factor that reflects narrow roads and congestion. According to the Tokyo Metropolitan Government's 2023 report, Arakawa Ward's average score was the worst, while plateau wards like Nerima and Suginami scored much better.

Fire Hazard and Evacuation: Fire often causes the worst casualties after a big quake. Areas with dense wooden homes are prone to fires that spread rapidly. Wards that have proactively widened roads or promoted fireproof redevelopment are safer. Chiyoda Ward has so few wooden homes that the entire ward is designated as a "district to remain" in a quake—residents there are advised not to evacuate because large fires are unlikely.

Geological Stability: Soft soil not only shakes more in earthquakes, it can liquefy when saturated and shaken, causing buildings to sink or tilt. Upland wards on the Musashino loam plateau have sturdy clay-rich soil that is far less prone to liquefaction.

Flood and Water Hazard: We consulted official flood inundation maps for major river basins and Tokyo Bay storm surge maps. Large portions of Edogawa, Koto, Katsushika, Adachi, and Sumida wards lie at or below sea level—their maps show potential inundation above 3–5 m in worst cases. By contrast, Bunkyo Ward sits mostly on elevated ground with flood maps nearly empty.

Tokyo Wards: Relative Risk Ranking

Tier A – Lowest Risk Wards (Relatively Safer Zones)

Bunkyo Ward (文京区)

Bunkyo is often cited as one of Tokyo's safest wards from natural hazards. It is centrally located on the high Yamanote plateau and comprises neighborhoods like Hongo and Koishikawa. The ward has virtually no flood-prone areas since it has no large river running through it. The elevation and firm ground mean lower shaking and liquefaction risk in quakes. Fire risk is moderate-to-low as well, with many neighborhoods consisting of universities, hospitals, and mid-rise apartments rather than old wooden houses. Overall, Bunkyo's combination of elevation, lack of large rivers, and solid ground make it one of the top choices for low disaster risk in Tokyo.

Shibuya Ward (渋谷区)

Shibuya Ward contains some of the highest ground in central Tokyo. Large portions of Shibuya are on uplands that are part of the Musashino plateau's edge, meaning stable geology and less shaking. A 2025 ranking of "disaster-resistant wards" placed Shibuya as #1, noting that many areas sit on high ground with firm soil. The ward's flood and tsunami risk is very low. Hazard maps show very minimal flood zones in Shibuya—only some low parts of Ebisu and along Meguro River might see shallow flooding in extreme rain. The upscale residential zones on ridges (Hiroo, Omotesando, Daikanyama) are among the safest in Tokyo for disasters.

Chiyoda Ward (千代田区)

Chiyoda Ward is the heart of Tokyo, encompassing the Imperial Palace and government district. It has an extremely unique risk profile. Chiyoda has the fewest residential areas and almost no old wooden neighborhoods—it's full of skyscrapers and robust office buildings. The Tokyo fire department designated all of Chiyoda as a "Shelter-in-Place" district, meaning people should stay where they are in sturdy buildings rather than evacuate. Most of its land is also moderately elevated. Flood risk exists at the northeastern edge (Akihabara area) where water could reach 1–3 meters if rivers overflow, but central and western Chiyoda are on higher ground or engineered land that is safe from even extreme floods.

Minato Ward (港区)

Minato Ward includes Roppongi, Azabu, and Akasaka. Much of Minato is upland and densely built with modern high-rises. Neighborhoods like Akasaka, Aoyama, Azabu, and Hiroo are on elevated plateaus (20–25 m high) that are secure against floods and benefit from firm ground. However, Minato Ward also has a coastline along Tokyo Bay. The bayfront strip (Shibaura, parts of Odaiba) shows high liquefaction susceptibility and tsunami risk. The majority of Minato's population and housing is on safe ground inland, but if you choose Minato, prefer the western half of the ward on elevated ground for maximum safety.

Meguro Ward (目黒区)

Meguro ward deserves an honorable mention as one of the safer residential wards. It lies on the southwestern Musashino plateau, and a 2021 survey of Tokyo residents picked Meguro as the #1 "disaster-strong ward" by image. Flood risk is low—only along Meguro River and a portion near the Tama River at the very southern end. Meguro scored as one of the lowest-risk wards in the TMG's collapse risk ranking. It has many reinforced concrete apartments and fewer old wooden areas.

Tier B – Moderate Risk (Mixed Safety) Wards

Setagaya Ward (世田谷区)

Tokyo's largest ward by population and area, Setagaya spans from the Musashino plateau in the north to the Tama River valley in the south. The northern and central parts sit on the Kokubunji plateau—stable ground with low shaking and negligible flood risk. However, Setagaya's southern border along the Tama River includes a broad low floodplain. The Tama River flood hazard map shows depths above 5 meters in parts of Tamagawa and Futako if a once-in-century flood overtops the levees. Setagaya also has some old wooden housing pockets which elevate its fire risk slightly. The ward's diversity means disaster risk is highly local here.

Suginami Ward (杉並区)

Suginami Ward is often grouped with Nerima and Setagaya as a "safe" residential area. Much of it is on the Musashino plateau with solid ground and no large rivers. The TMG survey data shows Nerima was #1 safest in quake risk, Suginami #2. However, four small rivers run through Suginami, and along these waterways are low-lying strips which can flood during heavy rain. Suginami also has many old wooden houses in neighborhoods like Nishi-Ogikubo and Koenji. Overall, Suginami is quite safe, especially the upland residential districts away from small river channels.

Nerima Ward (練馬区)

Nerima Ward is one of the highest and most geologically stable wards in Tokyo—named the #1 ward for strong ground. Nerima is situated entirely on the Musashino plateau with large parts 40–50 meters above sea level on solid ground. This makes Nerima very resistant to earthquake shaking and almost immune to liquefaction. Flood risk is minimal with only a few small rivers and no big river. Nerima's biggest issue in a disaster might be transportation—it's out on the edge of Tokyo 23 wards, so after a quake you might face a long walk home.

Ota Ward (大田区)

Ota Ward is very large and geographically varied. Parts of Ota are quite safe: the northwestern sections like Den-en-Chofu, Kugahara, and Senzoku lie on the edge of the Musashino plateau with low quake and flood risk. In contrast, Ota's eastern and southern portions consist of low, flat land built on deltaic or reclaimed land. The Kamata area and Omori coastal plain have high liquefaction potential and high flood hazard. Ota is the tale of two extremes: the northwest highlands (safe, more expensive) versus the southeast lowlands (higher risk, generally cheaper real estate).

Tier C – Higher Risk Wards (Vulnerable Areas)

Edogawa Ward (江戸川区)

Edogawa Ward lies on Tokyo's far east and is extremely flat and low—large parts are at or below sea level in the "Zero-Meter Zone." If levee defenses were overtopped or failed, Edogawa could suffer deep, long-lasting flooding. The Koto 5-ward Flood Hazard plan shows essentially the entirety of Edogawa ward under water in a severe scenario. Some areas could see water above 3–5 meters. Worse, drainage would be difficult—parts of Edogawa might stay inundated for over two weeks until pumped out. Edogawa's soil is highly subject to liquefaction and has quite a lot of older wooden housing, leading to high fire and collapse risk.

Katsushika Ward (葛飾区)

Just north of Edogawa Ward, Katsushika has a very similar risk profile. It's wedged between the Edogawa and Arakawa rivers with large portions in the Zero-Meter Zone. A city study ranked Katsushika as the #2 highest earthquake risk ward. Neighborhoods like Kameari and Shin-Koiwa have many old wooden houses on soft ground, making them susceptible to both collapse and fire. The worst-case flood map shows deep flooding (3m+) across most of Katsushika. Anyone living here should have a solid personal evacuation and insurance plan.

Arakawa Ward (荒川区)

Arakawa Ward unfortunately ranks as the most hazardous ward in Tokyo for earthquakes. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government's data consistently put Arakawa Ward at the top of the "Overall Earthquake Risk" list. Arakawa had the #1 most dangerous neighborhood in all Tokyo (Machiya 4-chome). The ward is largely a low-lying district along the Sumida River, filled with old wooden houses. The ground is very soft and shaking is amplified. Arakawa Ward has some elevated ground in the west—the area near Nippori sits on firm ground and is much safer. It's really the eastern part (Minami-Senju, Machiya) dragging it down.

Adachi Ward (足立区)

Adachi Ward encompasses the wide area where the Arakawa and Ayase rivers flow with extensive lowlands. Areas like Minami-Senju, Kohoku, and the entire eastern part are flat and low. Some parts are below sea level. Flood risk is very high along Arakawa and Ayase. Adachi has many older residential areas that ranked poorly in TMG's quake risk survey. An earlier survey found that Adachi had the greatest number of high-risk districts for quake fire spread. The northwest part of Adachi (around Toneri Park and Kohoku) is a bit higher elevation and has more spacious suburban layout—those parts are safer.

Sumida Ward (墨田区)

Sumida Ward is one of the classic shitamachi wards just east of the Sumida River. Almost entirely low-lying, Sumida sits on former swampland of the Sumida River delta. Flood risk is very significant with hazard maps showing large parts of Sumida with 3–4 m inundation in worst case. Sumida has notorious dense wooden districts like the Kyojima area. In the 2013 risk survey, Sumida had multiple neighborhoods in the top 10 worst, and the ward overall was ranked 3rd worst in average risk. Some riverside areas have been converted to parks which act as flood buffers, and Tokyo Skytree Town is built with modern engineering.

Taito Ward (台東区)

Taito Ward (home to Ueno, Asakusa) is an older central ward that also ranks high in risk. The Ueno/Yanaka area in the west is on a slight elevated terrace, whereas the Asakusa/Minowa area in the east is low flatland near the Sumida River. Taito was ranked the #2 most dangerous ward in one composite index. Neighborhoods like Nihonzutsumi and eastern Asakusa have extremely high fire spread potential. Taito's eastern half is within the Sumida River floodplain with hazard maps showing 1–2 m flooding likely. If you move to Taito Ward, try to live west of Ueno station—those neighborhoods are charming and safer.

Koto and Chuo Wards

Koto Ward is basically all reclaimed or low land—much of it used to be Tokyo Bay until landfills created new islands. It's crisscrossed with canals and is at sea level. A breach of levees would submerge inland areas like Monzen-Nakacho, Kameido, Sunamachi by 3–5 m. Liquefaction is also a huge concern with large zones marked high risk. Chuo Ward is also almost entirely low reclaimed land. Both wards have many modern high-rise apartments which would likely do fine in a quake, but residents might be trapped if surrounding streets flood.

How to Evaluate a Specific Property's Disaster Risk

Consult Hazard Maps: Start with the national Hazard Map Portal (重ねるハザードマップ)—an interactive site where you can overlay various hazard layers by entering the address. Check flood inundation, tsunami, and liquefaction layers. Search the ward name with "ハザードマップ" to get official PDFs.

Check Terrain and Elevation: Use elevation maps to find out if your potential home is at 25 m above sea level on a hill or 2 m in a river delta. A rule of thumb: 20 m above sea level is considered "safe" from even tsunamis, 10–20 m "mostly safe", 5–10 m caution, and under 5 m very low (high flood risk).

Building Age and Structure: If it's a 1981 or newer build, it meets newer earthquake codes which greatly improve collapse resistance. Check if older buildings have been retrofitted. New high-rises in liquefaction zones generally have deep pile foundations reaching firm strata.

Surroundings: Look at neighborhood layout. Are streets at least 6 m wide? Wider streets act as firebreaks and allow emergency vehicles to pass. Check the nearest designated evacuation spot and tsunami refuge buildings.

Past Disaster Records: Tokyo provides past flood record maps online. If you see that the address was flooded in 2020 or 2019, that's a serious consideration.

Final Recommendations

Tokyo's safest areas from natural disasters tend to be the west-central uplands—think Yamanote Line circle and beyond to the west—whereas the highest-risk areas are the eastern lowlands around the Arakawa/Edogawa rivers and Tokyo Bay coast. If you can choose freely, it's wise to "live high." But whatever your choice, do your homework with hazard maps and prepare accordingly.

Prioritize elevation and geology: Western/central uplands (Bunkyo, Shibuya, Meguro, Nerima, Suginami) offer best overall protection. Eastern wards require trade-offs—lower rent but demand modern buildings, upper floors, and rigorous preparation. Check micro-locations: even safe wards have risky pockets (valleys, riversides); even risky wards have safer spots (elevated patches, new developments).

Create a personal disaster plan regardless of location. Know your closest evacuation center and multiple routes to it. Keep emergency supplies for at least 3 days. If in a flood-risk zone, plan where you'd go if a serious flood is forecast. Tokyo provides an English "Disaster Preparedness Tokyo" guide—use it as a checklist.

By understanding Tokyo's disaster geography and choosing wisely, you can significantly reduce your natural disaster exposure while enjoying one of the world's most dynamic cities. Tokyo has lived with natural threats for centuries and continuously adapts. By choosing a safer area or building and staying prepared, you can greatly reduce the danger to you and your family.